Tetouan could one day find itself under water. That is the sobering conclusion of a new scientific study by Moroccan researcher Salah Eddine Zahli, who has produced a fresh flood-risk map covering the city and its surrounding region, including the Martil plain.
Published in the journal Water Practice & Technology, the research relies on two-dimensional hydraulic modeling, a technique that simulates with notable precision how rainwater moves across a given area during an extreme weather event. Zahli tested two worst-case scenarios, corresponding to flood events with fifty-year and hundred-year return periods, statistically rare occurrences, but ones urban planners take very seriously precisely because of their destructive potential.
The numbers are striking. In several low-lying zones, floodwater could reach nearly two meters in depth, with flow speeds exceeding two meters per second during the most severe events, enough to sweep away a car or undermine building foundations. The study identifies three compounding risk factors: continued urban expansion into naturally flood-prone areas, the gradual obstruction of natural drainage channels, and the region’s topography itself, where surrounding highlands funnel large volumes of rainwater toward low-lying zones and the Martil river basin before it reaches the Mediterranean Sea.
That river basin sits at the heart of the problem. Collecting runoff from the surrounding hills, it functions as the main outlet for the entire catchment area, passing through the urbanized centers of both Tetouan and Martil before draining into the sea. A sudden surge during an exceptional rainfall event could therefore overwhelm existing drainage infrastructure faster than authorities might expect.
The researcher is careful to frame the findings appropriately: the study does not predict when a flood might strike, only how severe one could be if it did. The resulting risk maps, which combine water depth, flow velocity, and hazard level, are intended as a planning tool, one that could guide future urban development decisions and help prioritize investment in protective infrastructure across both Tetouan and the neighboring municipality of Martil.
As climate change continues to intensify extreme rainfall patterns across the Mediterranean basin, this kind of scientific groundwork is becoming an increasingly practical concern for communities across northern Morocco.
